19161: Esser: Aristide tries to block rebel advance (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: D. Esser torx@joimail.com

Financial Times Europe
http://news.ft.com

Aristide tries to block rebel advance
By Guy Dinmore in Washington
Published: February 25 2004 4:00 | Last Updated: February 25 2004 4:00

Supporters of Jean-Bertrand Aristide, Haiti's president, yesterday
threw up barricades to block an expected rebel advance on the
capital, Port-au-Prince, while the US and France stepped up efforts
to seek a political settlement.

Although Haiti has had the makings of a failed state on America's
doorstep since flawed elections in May 2000, the Bush administration
is standing firm in its opposition to any international intervention
without first having a political pact in place. By now, however, even
if a political settlement is reached, its practical impact in halting
the violence and restoring stability is in doubt.

Responding to the loss of order, Britain yesterday became the latest
country asking its citizens to leave.

Diplomats in Washington are losing hope that opposition parties will
accept a power-sharing proposal which, in its current form, allows Mr
Aristide to remain in office but limits his authority.

Dominique de Villepin, France's foreign minister, is to convene
further peace talks with government and opposition representatives in
Paris this weekend. This initiative has been co-ordinated with the
US, according to a French official.

Separate rebel forces led by members of the former military junta now
control nearly half the country. Even if the opposition Democratic
Platform does drop its demand for the president's resignation,the
rebels may not call a truce.

Daniel Erikson, director of Caribbean programmes at the
Inter-American Dialogue think-tank, says that Haiti's political and
economic crisis cannot wholly be attributed to its relationship with
the US. But the nation has fallen victim to an unhappy cycle of
intervention and neglect.

"Over the last decade, the US approach to Haiti has vacillated
between aggressive engagement that eventually falls prey to
disappointing results, and partial withdrawal that allows the
country's woes to multiply until heightened involvement again becomes
necessary," Mr Erikson said.

This trend has been exacerbated by deep divisions between US
Democrats - who have generally supported Mr Aristide - and sceptical
Republicans who saw him as a leftwing demagogue.

Bill Clinton made Haiti an issue in his 1992 election campaign,
accusing then president George Bush of being indifferent to the
military coup that had ousted Mr Aristide, a former priest and
Haiti's first elected leader, in 1991, causing an exodus of refugees
by sea.

The Democrats hailed Operation Restore Democracy as a triumph in 1994
when 20,000 US-led troops brought back Mr Aristide after successful
mediation by former president Jimmy Carter, and Colin Powell, the
secretary of state, who was then chairman of the joint chiefs of
staff.

But Mr Clinton scaled back the US presence in time for his 1996
re-election campaign. Haiti was entering an economic and political
tailspin, with US attention already focused elsewhere.

One of the last acts Mr Clinton signed, in late 2000, effectively
halted US aid to Mr Aristide's increasingly corrupt government,
depriving the police and judiciary of support, while continuing
humanitarian assistance. Europe did the same.

Born 200 years ago out of a slave rebellion against French colonial
rule, Haiti is the poorest country in the western hemisphere with per
capita gross domestic income of less than $500 (?398, £268). The UN
ranked it 150 out of 173 countries on its 2003 Human Development
Index.

With its troops busy in Iraq and Afghanistan - and a ballooning
budget deficit - analysts say the US would be stretched to intervene
even if it wanted to.

Haitians fleeing by boat will be sent back, the Bush administration
says.

Maxine Waters, a Democratic congresswoman, is among members of the
congressional black caucus urging the Bush administration to assist
the Haitian police force in disarming the rebels and preventing what
she fears will turn into a "bloodbath". Mr Aristide dissolved the
army after his return to power. "The [Bush] administration could
avert this catastrophe if it wanted," she said.

Haiti could deteriorate, said Mr Erikson, but it is not clear that
the elements are in place for extreme violence or civil war. "It is a
popular convulsion against the government, but we are not seeing
systematic brutality yet," he said, noting that the death toll from
the three-week-old rebellion is in the scores, rather than hundreds.
"But it is becoming a lawless state," he added. "There is no army.
The police force is rapidly disintegrating. Political groups cannot
ensure control."
.