=?x-unknown?q?26894=3A__Hermantin=28News=29Pr=E9val_could_be_pr?==?x-unknown?q?esident_again=2C_poll_says_=28fwd=29?=

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: leonie hermantin <lhermantin@hotmail.com>

Posted on Wed, Dec. 14, 2005


HAITI
Préval could be president again, poll says
A new poll showed former Haitian President René Préval as the candidate to beat 
in the Jan. 8 presidential vote.
BY JOE MOZINGO AND JACQUELINE CHARLES
jcharles@herald.com

A new poll of Haitian voters shows former President René Préval leading the 
race for the Jan. 8 presidential elections -- but behind a wealthy businessman 
who has been ruled ineligible to run.

Of the 35 presidential candidates on the ballot, Préval, president from 1996 to 
2001 and a one-time ally of ousted President Jean-Bertrand Aristide, led the 
list with 30 percent, according to the poll by the Democracy Group, a 
Maryland-based political consultancy.

But Texas-based businessman Dumarsais Siméus notched 34 percent even though he 
has been disqualified from running because he allegedly gave up his Haitian 
citizenship when he became a U.S. citizen. The poll, which will be released 
today, suggested that his rags-to-riches story resonates with many voters in 
the poor Caribbean nation.

The poll of 703 Haitian voters across Haiti has a margin of error of plus or 
minus 3.7 percentage points.

It was conducted by the Democracy Group on behalf of the National Organization 
for the Advancement of Haitians, a Maryland-based group of more than 5,000 
Haitian professionals, including Siméus.

Shawnta Watson Walcott, a partner with the polling firm, and NOAH founder 
Joseph Baptiste insist that Siméus had nothing to do with the poll or its 
findings.

The poll put Charles Henri Baker, a wealthy businessman, in a distant third 
place with only 7 percent, even though 41 percent of those polled also said he 
is the ''best qualified'' candidate to improve their quality of life.

The survey also showed that while 51 percent of those questioned believe 
Aristide should be allowed to return home from his exile in South Africa -- 
where he fled amid an armed rebellion last year -- 65 percent also said they 
would not vote for him if he were on the ballot today.

The results of the Democracy Group poll differed from those of another survey 
taken by the Gallup company, with U.S. financing, and made public Friday.

That poll showed Préval with 32 percent and Siméus with 21 percent.

The Gallup poll surveyed 1,200 likely voters during the first week of November, 
about the same time as the latest poll. Its margin of error is 2.8 percentage 
points.

Analysts say Préval's popularity may well be a sign that Haitians believe he 
delivered a measure of stability and progress when he was president.

''Part of the problem is this [current] interim government has not delivered 
much in the last two years'' said Joceyln McCalla, executive director of the 
New York-based National Coalition for Haitian Rights. ``Préval, to some extent, 
delivered a little bit of that.''

But others noted that polls in Haiti can be unreliable.

''I don't think we can put faith into any poll at this point,'' said 
Jean-Germain Gros, a Haitian who teaches political science at the University of 
Missouri. ``We have to wait for the election . . . and see what happens.''