27684: Hyppolite Pierre: Critical comment on the elections (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From: Hyppolite Pierre <hpierre@irsp.org>

The elections took place. I think it's reasonable, based on the number of 
voters who have participated, to claim that at least close to 60 percent of 
those who have registered have actually voted. This proves once more the great 
determination of the Haitian people. I am glad. Now however, we have to deal 
with the reality. 
Preval is ahead, as predicted by the polls. That's a good thing for the 
reasonable left. However, he did not officially muster the 50 percent -plus one 
vote- required by the electoral law. He may therefore have to go to a runoff. 
There are all kinds of rumors circulating off the official list of Bob Corbett. 
Many of them are indeed credible, based on reasonable assessments. 
Nevertheless, as I always suspected, any one candidate from the left, 
especially someone with a direct or indirect "Lavalas" past, would have a hard 
time winning these elections. This is why, on at least two occasions on this 
very list, I suggested to the left NOT to send a presidential candidate to 
these elections. Instead, I thought and am still convinced that the left should 
have focused on winning at the municipal and legislative levels so they can 
have a voice in the process for long term gains, while reorganizing. This was 
obviously, a suggestion ignored by the reasonable left, and as the results 
slowly dripping in prove my previous analysis to have been at least partly 
correct. Now it's time, while in mid-course, to make some very hard and 
difficult yet important decisions. 
It is clear that, those who have control over the key institutions want is a 
runoff. If this sounds fishy, it may be but that's completely irrelevant at 
this point. In any case, should one wish to find reasonable justification of 
their doubt, I can at least tell you that on the very day of elections, 
February 7, 2006, I read with educated suspicion on the Haiti Democracy Project 
website (http://www.haitipolicy.org), what was a soft yet stern warning to 
Haitian journalists in Haiti NOT to start publishing results until the CEP make 
its final determination. That rose my critical radar and my fear from that 
point had been justified. Such HDP warning was most certainly, largely followed 
by journalists in Haiti working under miserable conditions in a miserable 
country for peanuts. 
What is a virtual certainty is that, should Preval agree to go for a runoff 
with Manigat, Preval will more likely than not, "lose" by about half a 
percentage point. This is true, although as of the last official count, Preval 
was ahead of his nearest challenger Manigat by close to 40 percent. I surely 
hope that at least some but hopefully most of you do understand what I'm 
saying: this is my own style of "double-entendre"  :). 
Let's nonetheless get to the fact to see how the reasonable left can do what's 
right for a democratic Haiti. It's a long process and there will be wins and 
losses. Thus far, the reasonable left have won although they can't seem to 
properly assess their win. 
My suggestions which as usual, will more likely than not be ignored, are the 
following:
1- Once the electoral council the CEP, release its final numbers and show the 
necessity for a runoff, Preval should officially withdraw his candidacy, and 
allow for the two candidates from the right (Manigat and Baker) to face each 
other. It will be a waste of time for Preval to go through the process again, 
knowing the almost inevitable outcome. All that Preval would do by 
participating in a second round, is further legitimizing what is seemingly a 
process with an inevitable outcome: his predictable loss;
2- Preval, as the leader of his wing of what I like to call the "Parti 
National" LESPWA, should allow other candidates from the wing of that party to 
decide individually whether or not they should participate in a runoff election 
for municipal and parliamentarian positions. 
The left at this point, should retreat and better organize as one sturdy and 
cohesive unit with intelligent parts (an intelligent right, left, and center 
within a party not owned by anyone). And of course the intelligent right need 
to do the same. 
The reasonable left need to allow the contradictions that come along with 
Haiti's presidency to play themselves out under Manigat. Perhaps most 
importantly, they also need to allow the Haitian right to sort through their 
own contradictions, for they have plenty. 
This may seem to be a controversial post but after all, a win by Manigat is not 
a loss for the left, or for the large majority of the Haitian voters. Here are 
some possible, if not probable, scenarios:
1. Manigat is a man of the right with a strong sense of his own political 
"weight", and an arrogance that even surpasses manifold that of Aristide;
2. Manigat will have to confront his own systemically powerful challengers from 
the right, from Baker to Apaid and Boulos, to many others;
3. I can reasonably infer from last Tuesday's showing and the results, that 
most of the Haitian electorate will not, will simply not go to a second round 
when the two challengers will or would be Manigat and Baker. They will make 
their voices heard through abstention; and
4. The rest of the world will thereby, witness who won the presidential 
elections on February 7, 2006. 
Many other outcomes, positive for the reasonable left, would or will come with 
a Manigat victory. In fact, the reasonable right will also begin to determine 
the real enemies of the Haitian people. This is exactly what we need in this 
current conjecture. 
What is essential at this point, is for the left to learn to be patient and to 
also respect itself. Folks, remember our peasants' greetings: OnÃ, respÃ. 
Unfortunately, thus far, the thirst for power, at the executive level by the 
left, has further damaged their true potential for institutional gain in the 
long run. They need to learn to win through increments rather than in one fell 
swoop. 
Preval or the left as a whole, has absolutely nothing to lose by not winning 
the presidency. This is a political struggle that needs to be fought with 
intelligence and important strategic thinking. Preval has been duped thus far, 
and should he even become Haiti's president, I fear much worse. I can tell you 
that based on my own assessments, after much thinking of reasonable scenarios, 
the best thing for Preval is to simply withdraw his candidacy, once Latortue's 
point man at the CEP Jacques Bernard had announced the final results through 
the media, confirming the first, and now confirmed whisper of the HDP's of a 
runoff. 
Let me now hibernate on this white, snowy day in Maryland. I might actually go 
skiing, with Charlito Baker of course (although I am sure he wouldn't want to, 
as he and his peers think of such suggestion as an insult to his kind). 
Enjoy this February day,
Hyppolite Pierre