27731: Sajousp: Haiti Elections (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

Reply-To: Sajousp@aol.com

Based on the data posted this morning if one were to break it down by
department one would find that there are:
200,279 votes uncounted in the  " Ouest"        where Préval leads  by  60.79%
78829      "           "                    "  Artibonite"                "
                  47.72%
17068      "           "                     "  Nord"                       "
                    46.59%
39882      "          "                     " Nord  Ouest"            "
               23.34%
4953        "           "                     " Nord Est     "            "
                   36.53%
7414        "           "                     " Centre  "                  "
                    33.94%
9081       "        "                    "  Sud Est "             "
           50.37%
14627      "           "                    " Sud   "                    "
                 33.94%
11629      "           "                     " Grande Anse"           "
               34.94%
10299      "           "                     " Nippes  "                   "
                    38.76%


If one were to make a weighted average of the remaining votes one would  find
the following:

200,279 x 60.59  = 12,134,964
78,829  x 47.72  =  3,761,720
17,068  x 46.59  =  795,198
39,882  x 23.34  =  980,846
4,953    x  36.53 = 180,933
7,414     x 33.94 = 247,183
9,081     x 50.37 = 457,410
14,627   x38.75  =  566,796
11,629    x34.94 =  406,317
10,299   x 38.76 = 399,189

The total is: 19,880,496  to be divided by the total of the uncounted  votes
which is : 394,061
and the result is: 50.45%.

In other words Préval has won the first round, as per the data posted by  the
CEP by depatment. The statiscal inference I have made is based on a sample
of 90% of the voters,the margin of error there is almost 0.

One can see that the data is being manipulated because now they are
reporting in the country summary that only 220,701 votes remained uncounted.I
have
read in press reports that Préval is to win by 47% ,that could be achieved  if
all the votes in the Ouest are not counted.To paraphrase Clarence Thomas that
would be high tech robbery.

Pierre-Andre Sajous

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