30081: Morse: Reflections from the Red Zone (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

oloffsonram@aol.com

A few people have written me "off list" concerned about my opinion of the 
Lancet report so I will make one final statement on it.

Lets assume that all the information in the report is correct. By that I mean 
the 8,000 killings (approximately 300 a month) and the 35,000 rapes (a 1400 a 
month). My next questions would be:

1) Is that an improvement over the two years previous to the report

2) Where do we stand during the two years after the report, and finally,

3) where is most of the violence coming from and is the violence being 
addressed?

If I remember correctly, the 2 years before Latortue, the police and the gangs 
were working for the same person. When we can look at, say, 6 years, 2 years 
before Latortue, Latortue, and now Preval, we'll have an idea of whether we're 
heading in a positive direction.

Personally, I no longer distinguish between the different Haitian regimes. Its 
all the "Haitian Government" to me. The Haitian Government endangered my life 
and people around me during Cedras/Francois, during Lavalas/Preval and during 
Latortue/Leon Charles. I'm looking for closure. When there's closure, I'll put 
it all behind me. Until there's closure, I'll consider myself in danger.

In a conversation with now President Preval, I was trying to convince him to 
run for President. I thought the conflicting sides (The Apaid people, the 
Lavalas people, the former Army people and the Haitian masses) would have more 
trust in Preval than any of the other candidates and perhaps our climate of 
security and peace would improve. Preval's reaction startled me. He was a bit 
angry at me for bringing up a potential presidential bid. One of his first 
remarks was that the exiled former president would have him killed. You have to 
remember that during his first term, Preval's sister, the one who sent me only 
half the carnival money, was shot eight times. Fortunately she survived. You 
also have to understand that Jean Dominique was assassinated during Preval's 
first term.  Preval considered Dominique a great friend, if not his best 
friend, and his "political consultant". These are great political pressures to 
consider when making a presidential run.

This morning I saw an article on the list where Aristide said it would be up to 
Preval to determine when he would make his return. I think Preval made his 
determination even before he became president a second time. The Haitian 
constitution doesn't permit the exile of Haitians. What Aristide has to 
consider before trying a come back is "what's in store for him?", both legally 
and politically and even more pragmatically, "how much security would he need 
and who would provide it? Last time he came back he did it with 20,000 troops 
and a little glass cage at great cost. I think he was spending upwards of 6-9 
million dollars a year on personal bodyguards. Are the South Africans going to 
send 20,000 troops and caches of arms to Haiti? So, for now... lets move on to 
other subjects.

If China wants Haiti to cut ties with Taiwan, they should seriously consider 
Haiti's needs for infrastructure, employment, an economy and Haiti's current 
environmental situation.

Carnival seemed like a lot of fun for a lot of people. I however, was in the 
hospital with another kidney stone attack. I was in bed with tubes in my arm on 
Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and released on Thursday. Lunise, for the second 
year in a row took charge of the band and by Tuesday night, was rocking Champ 
de Mars. I can't remember a woman rocking the Haitian people the way Lunise 
does. Ever.
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