27873: Craig (news) NYT Opinion: Stumbling forward in Haiti (fwd)

[Bob Corbett <corbetre@webster.edu>]

From:  Dan Craig


Stumbling forward in Haiti
The New York Times
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 17, 2006

The internationally brokered deal that declared René Préval the official winner 
of last week's Haitian election provided the best available exit from a bad and 
worsening situation. It required reinterpreting the election rules after the 
votes had been counted, which tarnishes the democratic legitimacy this election 
was supposed to provide.

But the prospects for a democratically acceptable outcome faced a more imminent 
threat from escalating violence by the frustrated Préval supporters who 
believed, perhaps accurately, that they had been defrauded of a first-round 
victory. By any count, Préval won at least 48.7 percent of the votes and led 
his nearest rival by a margin of 4-1. Dispensing with a runoff creates a narrow 
path forward, if Préval is wise enough to take it.

That will require reaching out to his opponents, as well as reining in his 
violence-prone supporters, many of them inherited from his mentor, the 
twice-elected, twice-deposed former president, Jean-Bertrand Aristide. Aristide 
and Préval, who won an election in 1995, are the only two democratically 
elected leaders in Haiti's long history. Only Préval peacefully served a full 
five-year term.

Beyond this feat of survival, Préval did not have a successful first term. The 
police remained brutal and corrupt. No progress was made toward creating a 
competent judiciary. Legislative elections were badly flawed. Drug trafficking 
flourished. Pro-government gangs ruled the slums. Little economic growth 
trickled down to the impoverished majority.

At least some of the responsibility for that lies with Aristide, the real 
political power during the first Préval presidency. If Préval again lets 
Aristide run things, those problems could recur. If he tries to keep Aristide 
at a distance, popular support for him could shrink fast. Under any 
circumstances, Haiti will need international support for a long time.

Copyright © 2006 The International Herald Tribune | www.iht.com